Shopping List Update

Bull market just keeps on going and it’s very difficult to see a major shift happening very soon. It seems that the most likely outcome of the QE operations is a significant bubble which will continue to grow for couple of years. Volatility might increase in near term but it’s very difficult to imagine all the loose money not going to stocks especially in Europe. All this makes it a bit difficult to come up with a solid shopping list for the next 6 months or so. In general I’d need to consider or address the following issues:

  • Portfolio balancing would require adding on existing positions in companies such as Baxter International, General Electric, AT&T, Aflac Inc and perhaps Deere. Baxter is special item here since I’d like to increase my position before the upcoming Baxalta spin-off.
  • I’m not a huge fan of the idea of converting euros to dollars with the current exchange rate (existing USD income will help a bit)
  • It’s much more difficult to find high quality companies from euro zone (especially ones that pay a quarterly dividend)
  • In general I would like to increase my position in currencies other than euro and US dollar

Having said that, the expected shopping list and order to  go as follows:

  1. Baxter International
  2. Unilever/Diageo/something european
  3. Telia-Sonera/Nordea/Gjensidige if there’s a temporary and significant enough drop during spring (otherwise these will be considered during Q4/2015 and Q1/2016)
  4. Canadian bank (looking at Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia at the moment even though I have some concerns about the housing bubble)
  5. General Electric/AT&T/Aflac/Deere (it remains to be seen how the dollar valuation moves or is moved, I might consider converting dollars to euros as well)

Recent Buy: Gjensidige Forsikring

My latest portfolio addition reported it’s Q4/2014 results today. As a result it was down about 5 percent and close to my average price. That was enough for me to make the planned second purchase. On February 4th I bought another 70 shares for 125,00 NOK per share. Gjensidige is now a full position and so far my only Norwegian position.

The report itself (based on a quick browse through) didn’t contain anything extraordinary nor something to get super excited about. The following pretty much sums it up:

Proposed dividend:
The Board has proposed a dividend of NOK 2,950 million for the 2014 financial year, corresponding to NOK 5.90 per share. Ex-dividend date is 24 April 2015.

Highlights 2014 (2013)

Profit before tax: NOK 5,399.6 million (4,574.1)
Profit per share: 8.38 (7.34)
Earned premiums: NOK 20,386.8 million (18,736.9)
Underwriting result: NOK 2,862.3 million (2,019.6)
Combined ratio: 86.0 (89.2)
Cost ratio: 15.0 (15.3)
Financial result: NOK 2,426.3 million (2,480.9)

Source: https://www.gjensidige.no/group/feed-view?releaseid=1806384

Recent Buy: Gjensidige Forsikring

I’ve been looking for an european insurance company for many months now. I was originally looking into companies such as Allianz and Munich Re but settled for a company which has one of the most difficult names in the world to type without any mistakes. On January 21st I bought 70 shares of Gjensidige Forsikring for 123,80 NOK per share. Changing valuation of Norwegian krone played a minor role as well. This is a starter position to which I expect to add on during February.

From https://www.gjensidige.no/group/about-us:

Gjensidige group

We are a leading Nordic general insurance company. We also offer banking-, pension- and savings products in Norway.

Gjensidige has provided insurance services for nearly 200 years.

The Group’s operations are divided into six business areas:
General Insurance Private
General Insurance Commercial
General Insurance Nordic
General Insurance Baltic
Pension and savings
Online retail banking

 

 

Q4/2014 Results

Total dividends received (before taxes) during Q4/2014 were 244,30 USD. Overall portfolio performance during 2014 was above expectations as the market value in euros increased by 20,70% (including increased valuations, dividends and changes in EUR/USD exchange rate). Total dividends for the whole year were 123 EUR and 584,32 USD.

This was first full year for this portfolio. Strategy for the new year shall remain the same unless political situation offers extraordinary circumstances. Oil prices and NOK (currency, not stock) valuation is something I have my eye on in 2015. Otherwise I expect mainly to add on existing positions and perhaps open one or two new positions depending on the market situation and valuations.

Recent Buy: Nordea Bank AB and TeliaSonera AB

Turmoil in Russia presented some unexpected possibilities today. On December 16th I bought 100 shares of Nordea Bank AB for 8,88 EUR per share and 200 shares of TeliaSonera AB for 5,04 EUR per share. Both transactions averaged down on existing positions. Nordea is now on slight overweight and TeliaSonera is a solid full position. Russia is a risk for Nordea but the stock seems to be very attractively valued at these valuations.

Recent Buy: Nordea Bank AB

On December 15th I bought another 100 shares of Nordea Bank AB for 9.45 EUR per share. This was an existing half position which was now increased to full position. Similar move will be made for TeliaSonera AB at some point (most likely during Q1/2015).

Recent turmoil in commodity stocks resulted extra transactions which I didn’t have planned in my previous shopping list. This might not be a problem after all since I’ve decided to wait for better entry point for Munich Re (or some alternative european insurance company). Meanwhile I hope to increase my position on TeliaSonera AB, restore cash reserves consumed by the extra transactions and start monthly purchases on existing positions to maintain current weightings in the portfolio. On the other hand oil might present some unplanned entry points for companies such as Exxon and Chevron.

Recent Buy: BHP Billiton Plc

On December 11th I averaged down on BHP Billiton Plc and bought another 30 shares for 42,71 USD per share. There are some short term  risks involved here but looking at this on 10+ years perspective I consider this to be a sweet deal.

Recent Buy: BHP Billiton Plc

Plans are made to be changed. Recent changes in commodity prices presented an opportunity too good to pass. Oil price has been dropping heavily and most of the associated companies are feeling the heat caused by it. BHP Billiton has been the crowd favorite in DGI community lately and no wonder why. It’s very diversified company trading near 52 week low valuation with very low P/E, nice yield and relatively low payout ratio. It was easy to justify opening a new position by purchasing 30 shares for 47,39 USD per share on December 1st.

HP Billiton Limited engages in the discovery, acquisition, development, and marketing of natural resources worldwide. It produces iron ore, metallurgical and energy coal, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, copper, aluminum, manganese, uranium, nickel, and silver deposits. The company also explores, develops, produces, and markets petroleum with operating assets located in the deep water Gulf of Mexico, onshore U.S., and Australia, as well as in the United Kingdom, Trinidad and Tobago, and Pakistan; and holds potash exploration rights to approximately 14,500 square kilometers of prospective ground in the Saskatchewan potash basin in Canada. The company was formerly known as BHP Limited and changed its name to BHP Billiton Limited in July 2001. BHP Billiton Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. BHP Billiton Limited operates as a subsidiary of BHP Billiton Group.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BHP+Profile

Recent Buy: Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.

Monthly purchase was this time motivated by the need to balance out the overall portfolio. OHI was an existing position which was now increased to full position (full position here means roughly 5% weight). On November 20th I bought 30 shares for 37,27 USD per share. With this move my overall REIT exposure is a bit one the high side but it will balance itself out in few months.

In the following months I’m hoping to add on existing positions on TeliaSonera, Nordea, Aflac and Deere and to open a new position in one european company preferably in insurance business (Munich Re being a strong candidate). Timing and actual companies depend on the current market situation though.

Recent (Risky) Buy: American Realty Capital Properties, Inc.

ARCP has been on my extended watch list for a while. So far I’ve focused on much more conservative companies in the REIT sector and have invested in companies such as Realty Income Corporation (0) and Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc (OHI). Considering the accounting issues ARCP announced yesterday, I really can’t regret that choice. That being said, on October 29th I bought 90 shares of ARCP for 8,20 USD per share.

This is somewhat a risky play here but the position is very small or even insignificant. It’s hard to say if their current dividend is safe or not but according to the current information it might be. In such case this would provide a very, very generous yield on cost. On the other hand the company could be buried with lawsuits and eventually go out of business. In such case I would still get something to deduct in taxes. In that sense this is not that risky move after all. Yesterday I saw the stock closing +20.79% above my purchase price and at the time writing this, it’s down -5.70% from previous close. In near future this will provide plenty of turbulence but all in all, I feel that the issues they are having are not bad enough to justify the -35% hit they were taking yesterday.

Reference:

ARCP Analyst/Shareholder Conference Call Transcript