Q3/2023 Results

Third quarter is over and this time it involves slightly unique situation: Sampo is spinning off Mandatum and this process is impacting both portfolios. In practice this means that reliable data is not available at the time of writing as portfolio values and performance metrics are temporarily skewed. Main focus however is in tracking dividends – as valuations tend to go up and down – and in that front performance was somewhat in-line with expectations: dividend income during quarter in Euros (pre-tax) was 1702,80 EUR.

Not much has changed since previous quarter. Geopolitical situation is more or less same and interest rates are probably at least close to peaking on both sides of the Atlantic ocean. Neighbouring Sweden has hit the wall with crime and immigration issues, southern Europe is showing similar signs and Finland is likely being pulled into the same mess. Public economic debate has for a while shown signs of distress: housing prices have declined, construction companies are already failing and employment level is likely going down as multiple industries and sectors will be hit. Winter truly is coming. Multiple markets are having fundamental problems in the underlying economy. This includes US (despite being incredibly robust when compared to Europe) and Europe in general. There are multiple elections coming up and truly addressing any of these problems will be incredibly difficult. Russia’s war in Ukraine naturally being one of the most difficult ones. There aren’t many countries I would consider truly viable in economic sense. Perhaps Norway being a rare exception. Having said all that, I’ll probably steadily buy stocks while allowing cash position to slowly increase during Q4. Likely additions will be for Realty Income REIT, Kesko and Fortum positions. If Mandatum will be initially dropping for technical reasons (all recipients not interested or even allowed to hold it), I might make mid sized addition on the position.

Recent Buy: Realty Income REIT

REIT sector has been taking a beating and Realty Income has felt it too. Interest rates are naturally key factor in this and overall economic situation is not that great either. Latter applying in both sides of the pond. Overall I see Realty Income as very interesting at current valuation levels. Sure, short term pain is likely to continue but long term it should do just fine. Therefore I re-invested dividends and bought additional 25 shares for 50.21 USD per share. If there are no drastic changes in valuations, I might be aiming for additional three identical tranches in coming months.

Recent Buy: Kesko Oyj B

Especially Finnish economy is starting to have negative enough sentiment. Construction companies are starting to drop like dead flies and that is likely to trigger domino effect among the smaller companies in the associated value chain. This will be yet another impact on average consumer already hit by inflation and higher interest rates. Kesko has already felt this hit in the share price but otherwise not so much. This is likely to change but on the other hand they are using this opportunity to expand their Nordic presence. Will the share price drop significantly during the next next 6-12 months? It very well might. I still decided to initiate position in company with a modest purchase of 30 shares bought for 17,99 EUR per share. I anticipate this to be relatively slow position building process. Company itself is solid – even high quality one – and management appears to be excellent. Then again next few years are likely very difficult for the Finnish economy. It remains to be seen how Kesko manages to navigate through these turmoils.

See: https://www.kesko.fi/en/media/blogs/investor-blogs-and-podcasts/2023/ir-blog-denmark/