Dwell+Done

First quarter of the year is over. In many ways it was as turbulent and those before it. War in Ukraine is still going but US threw minor banking crisis in the mix to spice things up. This didn’t hit my portfolios too badly. Main portfolio dropped -3,54% during first quarter and dividend income during quarter was solid 2486,69 EUR before taxes (converted to EUR on April 1st). This included part of the dividends paid out by Nordea which were already registered on one account during March even though actual pay date is on April. Then again BHP dividends were not registered in time.

Rest of the year appears to be quite foggy. This banking crisis is looming but to me it doesn’t appear likely be a huge hit, at least if moral impact is not considered. War in Ukraine is likely to go on for a long time but Ukraine seems well positioned and I don’t see how Russia could walk out of this with anything that could be counted as victory even by Russian standards. Finland is having elections tomorrow and chances are that we will get new government to clear up the economical mess left behind. If everything goes well, Finland might also be a NATO member as early as next week. These two have potential to enable positive loop for us but start might be painful. It remains to be seen if this would lead into more sensible taxation environment. For now I’ll probably continue adding on stocks with moderate pace. In other words I’ll not maximise purchase but will let cash to gradually build up until better opportunities come up.

Most people are probably glad that 2022 is now over and done with. This year will probably be remembered as tail of COVID-19 pandemic and from Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine. Perhaps it will eventually be remembered as the year when Ukraine forged itself into proud western democracy that will build itself back and prosper. Russia will be remembered the way it always has been remembered: failed 3rd world country. Next years hopefully will bring end to the war with clear victory for Ukraine, and hopefully well executed build back better financed by Russian money and with western backing.

In general this was very bad year for the markets. Therefore it’s a bit surprising that my portfolios performed well. Main portfolio gained 8,56% during the year while overall markets declined significantly. Dividend income for the whole year was 10821,77 EUR before taxes. At the time of writing this, last dividend from Lockheed Martin has not yet been registered but that does not have huge impact on the bigger picture. Based on preliminary analysis this dividend income covered 130,6% of base consumption after taxes (exact effective tax rate will be resolved later). This indicates that current portfolio fulfils requirements for lean FIRE. Therefore project appears to be on schedule and on track.

Plan for FY2023 is quite simple. I’ll try to eliminate last debt I have but that depends on market moves. I’ve been net debt free for quite some time already but main portfolio still contains small amount of investment debt which I’ll try to eliminate during first half of the year. In addition I’ll re-invest dividends and all other extra cash that remains after handling the debt. Should the market drop significantly, I might postpone the debt payment and buy stock instead.

Third quarter is over and we are getting to bearish enough sentiment. Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has escalated but Ukraine has put on a brave fight and seem destined to eventually win this war. Price they have and will pay is enormous but mandatory. Hopefully western nations will only scale up the military support and financial support afterwards. Russia appears to be escalating in Nordic neighbourhood with the explosions in the Nord Stream pipelines and probably more will follow. Then there’s the central bank activities with steep rate increases, inflation being somewhat out of hands and overall very pessimistic investor sentiment. Taking all this into account third quarter was somewhat OK as YTD in main dividend portfolio is still positive but performance during third quarter was -3,47%. Dividends before taxes were 1834,10 EUR (169,54 EUR, 190 SEK and 1 633,59 USD).

Assuming that there’s no big changes in overall environment, I’ll slowly decrease my accumulated cash. Dollar investments will probably be dividend reinvestments unless I’ll start converting received dividends into euros and Swedish kronas. Euro zone stocks in focus will probably include at least Kemira and possibly Finnish heavy industry related stocks if/when those will drop enough going towards recession.