Groundhog day – Pandemic Edition continues. Yet another boring quarter has passed and handling of the pandemic is still as poor as it has been throughout the pandemic. Speaking of Finland in many ways EU of course. As expected, US appears to bounce back like a dead cat from trampoline which makes us look even worse than usual.
This quarter was quite slow one. I made only few maintenance purchases and sold some of my NEL shares. This was mainly caused by the market situation but also by personal reasons as running & resolving my late father’s estate and associated inheritance details took quite a lot of time. This will have significant impact on second quarter as well. Timing with NEL was spot on but I’ve been holding back on buying back the shares. In general I’ve kind of moved towards reducing portfolio risk which might continue going forward. This should leave the door open for significant moves in my personal finances later. I’ll likely do just minor maintenance purchases and possibly sell some growth or non-core positions.
Dividend income during the quarter was 1284,37 EUR before taxes. Dividends have recovered quite nicely from the hit caused by pandemic. Quite a few REIT are still to restore the dividends and ECB is pushing back bank dividends but these will hopefully resolve themselves before the year ends.
Yet another boring maintenance purchase with 54 shares bought for 2,72 EUR per share. Nothing special here but sector in general is starting to show some signs of increasing M&A activity. My thesis is intact and I expect CapMan to be a part of M&A move soon enough. Working thesis contains timeframe of two years.
This is once again something I might regret later but I trimmed my NEL ASA position today and sold 1000 shares for 33,63 NOK per share. Cost basis for these was 4.6 NOK per share. Quite nice profit in that sense. There’s really no specific reason for this. I just decided to take some of the profits now. My long term view really hasn’t changed as I still consider NEL to be a buyout target for bigger players. In current environment it’s really difficult to say when that might happen – if it will happen at all – but the sector in general is likely to boom for years to come. I would also be amazed if there’s no significant pullback in the near future. Some of the sector plays have gone through the roof lately and correction there would probably pull NEL down as well. I might buy back these shares (and then some) should that happen but let’s see. For now don’t mind holding some cash.
Everything comes to an end eventually. Probably 2020 will not be missed by many. Pandemic is still ongoing concern even though vaccinations are in progress. Even in developed countries the progress seems to be a bit asymmetric and EU in general seems to be lagging behind a bit. US elections were held and results can be considered final even though some aftershocks are still coming. Brexit was also “finalised” but it seems to be a gift that keeps on giving for years to come. In general pandemic together with brexit revealed something fundamental about EU community. As a result of those events I’m slightly more convinced that EU and Euro as currency will start to break down sooner than later. I don’t anticipate it to happen very quickly but quicker than I thought before. This kind of uncontrolled step towards federalization without a real mandate – and for fundamentally incompatible national economies – will eventually bite us in the ass. I’m guesstimating a timeframe of 8-15 years until this really starts to hit us.
Fourth quarter was somewhat expected kind of quarter. Dividend income compared to previous year was impacted negatively by the pandemic and reduced, eliminated or postponed dividends. Fourth quarter dividend income was 1078,82 EUR before taxes compared to 1 343,74 EUR in 2019. ECB also continued the dividend ban for banks and other financial companies so previously postponed dividends were not paid during this quarter. It is possible that some of those will be paid during 2021 but it’s likely that those and additional since then cumulated profits – buffered dividends if you will – will be heavily capped by ECB. I fear that this ECB decision will be as effective as pissing in your pants in freezing temperatures. FY2020 dividends before taxes were 5040,06 EUR compared to 6769 EUR in FY2019. Primary portfolio market value was hit very hard during the pandemic due to heavy REIT allocation for which recovery is still in progress: 12 month change in dividend portfolio value was −16,43%, fourth quarter change was +6,08% but this paper loss was partially compensated by the secondary growth portfolio.
FY2020 was still a success in personal finances. I tracked my overall savings rate for the whole year and managed to save 73,7% off all my income. That’s a figure which would be hard to beat consistently. I also end the year with portfolio debt to equity ratio of 0,004 which significantly below the 0,1 target average. Plenty of liquidity available for 2021 but in current environment it’s difficult to make any moves. Plan is to keep adding consistently with focus at least on healthcare sector and Swedish dividend stocks. It’s likely that I’ll let cash to to build up a bit but let’s see how the first quarter unfolds.
Just another maintenance purchase and once again it’s CapMan. I bought additional 46 shares for 2,255 EUR per share. CapMan has performed quite well lately. Long term view is also still in place. This is a sector which is very likely to see some M&A activity and it’s very likely that CapMan will be involved in a way or another.
Nordnet had black friday campaign with no fees for US stocks. I used this opportunity for some dividend reinvestments and bought 5 shares of 3M for 178,6 USD per share and 30 shares of AT&T for 29,038 USD per share. Nothing special here with these picks. Solid companies for long term dividends though both have had their short term challenges.
Tiny maintenance purchase just so that my CapMan share amount is in full hundreds. Market is up today so I might have to wait with other purchases but buy is a buy even if it consists of 35 shares bought for 2.035 EUR per share.
US elections are approaching fast, COVID-19 is picking up speed for new waves and stock markets are heading down. Quite expected I would say. I bought additional 56 Fortum shares for 16,395 EUR each. Nothing new there. Sure, (political) risks are still present but then again winter is coming as well. I’ll probably make at least a single US purchase around the elections with existing US dollars. I’m also eying something from Stockholm as I have a SEK pile burning a hole on my pocket.
Not that much has changed compared to previous quarter. Global economy is mainly dominated by still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and BLM protests in US as they prepare for presidential elections. There were ups and there were down during the quarter. Index level recovery has been surprisingly quick one. Personally my portfolio is still down mainly due to the heavy REIT allocation. Lately I’ve been holding back a little bit as the elections are likely to provide some turbulence together with second – and third – corona wave.
Dividend income before taxes during Q3 was 871,88 EUR (Q3/2019 1 206,75 EUR). Corona is clearly showing but not too badly. Impact was way clearer during last quarter as the Euro dividends have been cut or postponed especially in financial sector.
Tiny maintenance purchase with 25 shares of CapMan bought for 1.98 EUR per share to keep the streak going. Strict cash balance reservation didn’t allow bigger purchase this time around. Let’s see how the market moves in coming weeks. I might dip into my reserves if we see bigger moves.